Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $262,173$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324,244.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 98.8)}}\) (asimptote \(324,244.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,211$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,932.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 78.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,932.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,692$ on 2020-07-14

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,174$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,445.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 100.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,445.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $396$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(41 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{386.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(386.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,617$ on 2020-07-14

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,757$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,095.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 122.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,095.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,345$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,757.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 119.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,757.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,630$ on 2020-07-14

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $237,803$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(8.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{312,611.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(312,611.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,283$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(61.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,020.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,020.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,960$ on 2020-07-14

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $34,078$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(680 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,861.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 118.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,861.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(153.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,214$ on 2020-07-14

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $214,993$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193,897.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(193,897.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,402$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,993.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,993.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,871$ on 2020-07-14

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,568$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,649.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(86,649.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.24 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(460.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,308$ on 2020-07-14

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $104,533$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,038.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(108,038.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $150$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(4.96 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.6)}}\) (asimptote \(188.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,223$ on 2020-07-14

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Qatar recovered 91%
Korea, South recovered 88%
Turkey recovered 84%
United Arab Emirates recovered 46%
Nepal recovered 35%
Tajikistan recovered 34%
Iran recovered 32%
Pakistan recovered 29%
Bahrain recovered 26%

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,551$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(6.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(126.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,674.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 18.6)}}\) (asimptote \(11,674.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $289$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(112 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{275.9}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(275.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $914$ on 2020-07-14

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $55,573$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(3.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,959.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 91.5)}}\) (asimptote \(54,959.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(60.2 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{312.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.8)}}\) (asimptote \(312.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,213$ on 2020-07-14

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,061$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(415 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,726.7}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 66.1)}}\) (asimptote \(18,726.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(7.07 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 29.4)}}\) (asimptote \(42.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,695$ on 2020-07-14

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,643$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,172.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 28.2)}}\) (asimptote \(6,172.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $56$ on 2020-07-14

Best fit exponential: \(27.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{51.0}{1 + 10^{-0.094 (t - 11.9)}}\) (asimptote \(51.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,255$ on 2020-07-14