Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $262,173$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(2.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{324,244.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 98.8)}}\) (asimptote \(324,244.2\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,211$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.88 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,932.5}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 78.4)}}\) (asimptote \(12,932.5\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,692$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,174$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,445.5}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 100.7)}}\) (asimptote \(56,445.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $396$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(41 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(28.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{386.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(386.7\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,617$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,757$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,095.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 122.0)}}\) (asimptote \(126,095.5\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,345$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,757.2}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 119.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,757.2\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,630$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $237,803$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(8.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{312,611.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 101.6)}}\) (asimptote \(312,611.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,283$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(61.6 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,020.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 102.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,020.4\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,960$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $34,078$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(680 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,861.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 118.7)}}\) (asimptote \(44,861.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $111$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.2}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 104.6)}}\) (asimptote \(153.2\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,214$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $214,993$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193,897.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(193,897.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,402$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(1.53 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,993.6}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(4,993.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,871$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,568$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(369 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,649.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 125.0)}}\) (asimptote \(86,649.5\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.24 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460.7}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 100.1)}}\) (asimptote \(460.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,308$ on 2020-07-14
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $104,533$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(5.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{108,038.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 90.7)}}\) (asimptote \(108,038.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $150$ on 2020-07-14
Best fit exponential: \(4.96 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{188.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 86.6)}}\) (asimptote \(188.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,223$ on 2020-07-14